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Chile and Indonesia clearly shows. The accuracy of this technique clearly varies enormously according to the skill set of the decision maker and the relevance of his or her past experience to the current situation. This approach appears to have the formal rigor of financial risk management, but it is actually inadequate. That means mastering new analytic skills and tools. Southeast Asia chose to renegotiate or cancel scores of contracts. Politicians will struggle to balance popular demands to punish those perceived as responsible against fears of stymied innovation and the flight of human and financial capital. Telasi to pass the costs of policy and other risks on to Georgian consumers. Pressures in Chile to enhance equity and social cohesion culminated in the 2000 election of socialist Ricardo Lagos as president. Finding political pressure points.

Although employees, suppliers, and activists may have access to better information, they lack the specialized training that these advisers bring to the table. Consider the 1997 Christmas blackout in large parts of Brazil, including Rio de Janeiro. You now have to learn how to play politics directly. Economist Intelligence Unit, Stratfor, and Oxford Analytica; to global political consultancies, such as Political Risk Services or Eurasia Group. When companies move into less developed markets, they often expect huge, instant efficiency gains from exploiting the technologies, business models, and practices that they have managed to hone in their home markets. Political mastery can become a source of competitive advantage and a means of avoiding losses.

Click here for a larger image of the graphic. Stronger international law and the symbiotic nature of growth in emerging and developed economies reduced asset seizures to nearly zero during the 1980s. Today, this risk has largely disappeared. Historically, the biggest risks faced by foreign investors were in developing countries with immature or volatile political systems. Under pressure from Samsung, the government insisted that one of the new 3G licenses be awarded to LG Telecom in return for its promise to adopt CDMA2000. Managers must begin by understanding the attitudes, opinions, and positions of relevant actors toward their firm, the industry in which the firm operates, and any specific actions that the firm might take to influence outcomes on the playing field. The insights produced by this approach are, of course, only as good as the information brought into the room and the quality of the team assembled.

After he was ousted in a coup, the previously favored companies experienced a backlash as the successor government renegotiated their contracts. Unfortunately, the traditional financial and contractual mechanisms that firms use to assess and mitigate business risks have limited value. In the developed world, managers spend a great deal of time and energy on improving efficiency. Union of Consumers of Georgia toward AES was negative, but less so. Financial hedges have limited value for similar reasons. Linkages across actors or clusters of actors can be indicated by either location or connecting lines. Instead, firms need to master the art of political spin. In 1997, one risk index ascribed an identical score to those two countries. The measure took no account of the significant institutional differences between them. To begin with, such ratings usually fail to account for the fact that the levels of policy risk vary among different investors in a country, some of whom may adapt their business practices to local norms and lobby key policy makers better than others do. Political officials had to choose between honoring the contracts, at the risk of compromising their own popular support, and renegotiating them in order to maintain that support.

Governments in developing countries no longer seize foreign investments. As with the management of any risk or uncertainty, political mastery can become a source of competitive advantage in addition to a means of avoiding losses. The multinational firms best able to anticipate and manage the related risks and opportunities will have the strongest competitive edge. Instead of engaging in PR campaigns that amount to little more than advertisements for the brand, companies need to master the art of political spin. The combined actions of all the actors result in a likely policy outcome. Other recent data are consistent with the finding that policy risk has increased greatly. It is therefore not surprising that, despite the ability to calculate residual risk premiums, no financial institutions have used such premiums to price an instrument that pays out money when a policy risk is realized. In the South Korean wireless battle, LG Telecom benefited from the influence of upstream suppliers. Roundell, Sentia Group, the Probity Group, and Commetrix.

NLP software can also gauge the intensity of sentiment. The sensitivity of the outcome to various assumptions and parameters can then be calculated, helping to identify which actors are so pivotal that a change in their preferences, power, or salience would have a large impact on policy. Korea Telecom and SK Telecom. Taking these pages out of the political playbook requires building the sorts of capabilities in intelligence gathering and analysis that are familiar to politicians, spies, and journalists. And they must learn how to apply political pressure, either individually or as part of a coalition. Ratings are incorporated, in the form of country risk premiums, into the discount rates used to evaluate investment opportunities. Unfortunately, the political costs of such practices may outweigh those gains. Firms engaged in international business often use some combination of legal contracts, insurance, and trade in financial instruments to protect the income streams from their investments against currency or price swings.

For many companies, that means rewriting the playbook. Royal Dutch Shell now routinely includes Greenpeace in substantive environmental discussions. General Suharto, renegotiated contracts with foreign investors that were unaffiliated with his family or close friends. Instead they find ways to divert the profits through regulation or selective lack of regulation. Of course, the risks of investment may simply be too great to justify entry into certain political zones. The most formal tool for modeling the policymaking process is the dynamic expected utility model, which is based on game theory. Observers in central Europe have noted the lobbying success of the German and French governments on behalf of national champions in countries seeking EU membership. This type of debate played out in the South Korean wireless market. Finally, country risk ratings are usually retrospective, reflecting past policy outcomes.

And a 2009 survey by the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency and the Economist Intelligence Unit found that multinational enterprises considered breach of contract, restrictions on the transfer and convertibility of profits, civil disturbance, government failure to honor guarantees, and regulatory restrictions all to be more significant risks than the potential seizure of assets. But no matter how good the apparent fit between what foreign companies offer and what host countries need, success is far from assured. Are the Locals Hostile to You? Sessions may be scheduled regularly or triggered by a shock or event that requires a strategic response. To broaden their perspectives, more and more companies are reaching out to nonbusiness organizations that can help them anticipate and preempt consumer concerns about environmental, health, and safety issues. Analysts first identified which actors were most commonly cited in the press and whom these actors referenced in their speeches and writings. The defining question is whether the government will back new entrants in the name of encouraging fair competition, or limit the pool to experienced players. Even when contracts can be legally enforced, experience shows that inventive politicians can circumvent them, through a wide variety of means other than changing laws.

In 2003 Greenpeace activists in Hungary protested against the use of cyanide technology at the Rosia Montana gold mine in Romania. To improve the accuracy of such judgments, managers can also involve specialized consultancies that draw upon a more diverse set of experiences from multiple firms and industries in the target country or a comparable one. At its heart, this system will always retain elements of tacit knowledge and experience, and not all managers and firms will be able to master its intricacies. For example, a coalition of local and international activists sharply contested the plan by Canadian mining company Gabriel Resources to develop the Rosia Montana gold mine in Romania. For starters, legal contracts are useful only if they are enforced, and shifting laws and regulations can render them void. Rosia Montana gold mine in Romania with the percentage of sentences indicating NGO opposition to the plan. New entrants garner support for policies that favor them over incumbents by citing the abuse of monopoly power. But in many cases investors who explicitly recognize the dynamism of the environment and implement appropriate strategies to address it will find the risks quite manageable.

The large volume and relatively unfocused nature of the material make it hard to synthesize, digest, and act upon effectively, even if a company has substantial resources for this activity. When companies enter new countries, they often engage in extensive PR campaigns that amount to little more than advertisements for the brand and specific commercial ventures. AES and British Gas. Although these sources provide valuable conventional input, they can require more time and money than such small, subjective, potentially biased snapshots might merit. Each actor chooses the alternative that maximizes his, her, or its expected utility in each period. But those that do will find it a powerful source of competitive advantage.

These approaches, however, offer little protection against policy risk. The major Korean carriers wanted to shift to the globally favored WCDMA standard for the newest generation of cellular service, but domestic champion Samsung had developed a global leadership position in the competing CDMA2000 technology. Overt seizures of foreign assets by host countries in emerging markets essentially evaporated by 1980. Traditionally, managers who have undertaken political analyses in a host country have directly consulted employees, local business partners, and supply chain partners. As companies such as the Italian oil giant Eni have demonstrated, managing political risk involves balancing operational efficiency with political capital, mastering the art of political spin, and hitting the pressure points of local decision makers. British company, for example, used such a model to decide how to influence the climate change debate in the European Union. The network of relationships in a society greatly influences policy outcomes, especially in countries with weak legal systems.